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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...
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iowa, we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have a chance of winning virginia and florida. it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> joining me now, msnbc/"time" magazine nbc political analyst mark halperin. we just went through all those polls. the national polls, we know it's not a national referendum, but they all tell the same story. it's tied. the president seems to be leading but all within the margin of error. where is this race one day out? >> all within the margin of error. the obama campaign argued from the beginning that they're stronger in the swing states, they've targeted those states from the beginning. they don't look at the national number. in those swing states like in ohio they've targeted white working class voters on the auto bailout. and some of other battle ground states they've targeted hispanics and younger voters and african-americans and women. the president's team has a logic to what they've done. until we see the actual results, there's reason to believe that they're stronger
iowa, we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have a chance of winning virginia and florida. it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> joining me now, msnbc/"time" magazine nbc political analyst mark halperin. we just went through all those polls. the national polls, we know it's not a national referendum, but they all tell the same story. it's tied. the president seems to be leading but all within the margin of error. where...
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paul ryan heads to nevada, colorado, ohio and wisconsin. all right. take a look at this. yes, that is new jersey governor chris christie greeting homeland security chief as the pair toured a relief center in hoboken sunday. christie last sun said he didn't give a damn about the presidential election as he dealt with the disaster. on sunday he laughed at the notion that he wasn't still loyal to mitt romney. >> i don't understand why telling the president of the united states he's done a good job when he's done a good job equals an endorsement. fact of matter is, mitt romney knows this, by the way, so does the president of the united states. i endorsed mitt romney 13 months ago because i thought he was the best guy for the job. on tuesday i'm voting for mitt romney because i think he's the best guy for the job. it doesn't mean i can't turn to the president of the united states of america and say to him, thank you, sir, for providing good leadership in this crisis and helping the people of new jersey and extend my hand of friendship to him. this shows you how broken our poli
paul ryan heads to nevada, colorado, ohio and wisconsin. all right. take a look at this. yes, that is new jersey governor chris christie greeting homeland security chief as the pair toured a relief center in hoboken sunday. christie last sun said he didn't give a damn about the presidential election as he dealt with the disaster. on sunday he laughed at the notion that he wasn't still loyal to mitt romney. >> i don't understand why telling the president of the united states he's done a...
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today will campaign in virginia while his running mate paul ryan meets supporters in colorado and in nevada. >>> still ahead this morning on "way too early," a tale of two cities. a lan of demarcation separates manhattan with power from the manhattan completely in the dark. we'll show you the different worlds on the same island. >>> plus, john stuart offered his take on that divided city. a little comic relief in the middle of all this from john stewart and a check on the weather when "way too early" come back. i'm freaking out man. why? i thought jill was your soul mate. no, no it's her dad. the general's your soul mate? dude what? no, no, no. he's, he's on my back about providing for his little girl. hey don't worry. e-trade's got a killer investing dashboard. everything is on one page, your investments, quotes, research... it's like the buffet last night. whatever helps you understand man. i'm watching you. oh yeah? well i'm watching you, watching him. [ male announcer ] try the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. well i'm watching you, watching him. ♪ atmix of energies.ve the world needs
today will campaign in virginia while his running mate paul ryan meets supporters in colorado and in nevada. >>> still ahead this morning on "way too early," a tale of two cities. a lan of demarcation separates manhattan with power from the manhattan completely in the dark. we'll show you the different worlds on the same island. >>> plus, john stuart offered his take on that divided city. a little comic relief in the middle of all this from john stewart and a check...
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we have wisconsin, nevada, colorado, ohio, florida, and new hampshire. romney with fewer stops planned to so far. the governor planning in virginia, wisconsin, ohio, new hampshire, and colorado as well. we want to bring in thursday's power panel. guys, it's good to have you here. alice, i want to start with you governor romney, as we mentioned, speaking moments ago. he wasn't holding back on his criticisms of the president. take a listen. >> he's got to find something to suggest it's going to be better over the next four years. so he came up with an idea next week, which is he's going to create the department of business. i don't think adding a new chair in his cabinet will help add millions of jobs. >> now that he's back officially on the campaign trail, mitt romney and any post-sandy chivalry is dead. is it risky for him to be doing this so soon in the wake of a disaster, especially in virginia, where they were under orders of sandy's presence coming their way? luckily, they were spared. >> governor romney showed tremendous compassion for those who are
we have wisconsin, nevada, colorado, ohio, florida, and new hampshire. romney with fewer stops planned to so far. the governor planning in virginia, wisconsin, ohio, new hampshire, and colorado as well. we want to bring in thursday's power panel. guys, it's good to have you here. alice, i want to start with you governor romney, as we mentioned, speaking moments ago. he wasn't holding back on his criticisms of the president. take a listen. >> he's got to find something to suggest it's...
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he kicks it off in the battleground blitz in wisconsin, nevada, and colorado. when he makes his final campaign stop in des moines, iowa, at a rally with the first lady, that's the only stop that she joins him on. the president will have visited eight of the nine battleground states. the one that he's not going to is north carolina. the 2012 presidential election could hinge on this, will the firewall of iowa, ohio, and wisconsin hold up? and you only have to look at the president's travel over the last five days of the campaign to find out that's where the campai campaign believes the race will be decided. one of them has to be the state of ohio. the president has events in ohio four out of five days on the trail. he stopped in iowa, wisconsin, and colorado two times, each will be in florida and virginia, new hampshire, nevada just once before this campaign is over. today the president will begin laying out what aides say is his closing argument, making a stronger case for government. he will point to the way forward to real change. it will say this apparently
he kicks it off in the battleground blitz in wisconsin, nevada, and colorado. when he makes his final campaign stop in des moines, iowa, at a rally with the first lady, that's the only stop that she joins him on. the president will have visited eight of the nine battleground states. the one that he's not going to is north carolina. the 2012 presidential election could hinge on this, will the firewall of iowa, ohio, and wisconsin hold up? and you only have to look at the president's travel over...
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. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the re
. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue?...
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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he started in 2007 and is now a state director in nevada. i see it through his eyes. there's a degree, when it functions best, there's a feedback. if you have people going to the doors every day and doing constant focus grouping and constant interactions with voters to see what's moving them, that's democracy at its core. if you are finding when you go to the doors, women age 20 to 35 really are worried about birth control and access to it. then, what you see is that moves the way the president talks. >> it's too cold. it's too cold. it's chilling. it's like the big ad corporations. what you want to do is get a feel for the electorate long before it's election time. then provide the kind of leadership to get people pumped up about your program in advance and have the field offices and your field operation come in as profound tools to get those voters to the polls. >> there is something -- i believe -- listen, what we are talking about. >> i'm amazed. >> i know. i am retail politicking. going door-to-door, speaking to the working people of pennsylvania or ohio, trying
he started in 2007 and is now a state director in nevada. i see it through his eyes. there's a degree, when it functions best, there's a feedback. if you have people going to the doors every day and doing constant focus grouping and constant interactions with voters to see what's moving them, that's democracy at its core. if you are finding when you go to the doors, women age 20 to 35 really are worried about birth control and access to it. then, what you see is that moves the way the president...
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we're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i think a lot of us, we're sort of victims of 2004. before 2004 we were all more convinced of the challenger incumbent rule. that somehow challengers always got the undecided and then a tie goes to the challenger. then you're happened when bush won frankly as many of the undecided as he did. then you'd have to go back to '76 the last time the person with momentum lost at the end. lost the popular vote. that was ford. ford had the momentum but carter won in the end. even gore, he had the last-second momentum. he did win the popular vote. having the momentum has it in the
we're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i...
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. >> and after all that we've been through together, nevada, we sure as heck can't give up now. >> i want you to know i'm confident about the future. i'm optimistic. >> the race to election day less than 96 hours away. >>> and a must-see joe biden top ten list. you're watching "first look" on msnbc. look how small they were! [ husband ] transfer! [ male announcer ] free data transfer at home. you just deleted all the photos! you did! no you did! [ male announcer ] or free data transfer when you buy a windows 8 computer at staples. another way staples makes it easier to upgrade. can you help me with something? nope! good talk. [ male announcer ] or free windows 8 training when you buy a computer at staples. another way staples makes it easier to upgrade. >>> 96 hours to go, and the candidates plan to spend a lot of time in the batting ground state of ohio. nbc's tracie potts has details. tracie, good morning. >> reporter: lynn, good morning. it is a very aggressive schedule. governor romney hits four states alone just on sunday, and between the presidential and vice presidential candi
. >> and after all that we've been through together, nevada, we sure as heck can't give up now. >> i want you to know i'm confident about the future. i'm optimistic. >> the race to election day less than 96 hours away. >>> and a must-see joe biden top ten list. you're watching "first look" on msnbc. look how small they were! [ husband ] transfer! [ male announcer ] free data transfer at home. you just deleted all the photos! you did! no you did! [ male...
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president needs to win just three in order to win a second term to get 271 electoral votes and those are nevada where there are six votes, wisconsin where there are ten and here in ohio, there are 18. and winning just those three of all these battle grounds gets you to 271 in a very narrow win, but that's what would do it for him and they feel very good about those three states. >> assuming they hold pennsylvania. >> that's true. that is a big point right there. >> i think there's a sense that florida might be moving in romney's direction. structurally, that's always been the most problematic of the battleground states for obama. and if i were betting, i would bet romney carries florida. >> and we're hearing from the romney side that there's a bit of a head fake there. >> it may be. what a lot of strategists have told me is if you're going to make a play for a state, you need to do it at least three weeks before election day. so one week out, not even a full week, makes it tough. it might be too little too late for mitt romney where they are spending a lot of money at this last minute. but they
president needs to win just three in order to win a second term to get 271 electoral votes and those are nevada where there are six votes, wisconsin where there are ten and here in ohio, there are 18. and winning just those three of all these battle grounds gets you to 271 in a very narrow win, but that's what would do it for him and they feel very good about those three states. >> assuming they hold pennsylvania. >> that's true. that is a big point right there. >> i think...
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but in the other states that you see, nevada colorado florida, and virginia we are still waiting and we are ve open to the results of an concession speech maybe people should stay in line now to win the popular vote as well as the ee lk torllectoral vote. >> we stay in the line anyway. >> we agr stay electoral vote tally according to the projections of the various states are 274 for barack obama and 3 for mitt romney. vb49/49 with only a couple hundred thousand votes between the two candidates. we're going to take a quick break. comments are expected from mitt romney. now with the romney campaign refusing to concede ohio w to happen. we'll keep you posted. we'll be right back. cf:$ >>>arack obama. still up in theve. colorado for president obama. steve schmidt, what do you think? this is one more move towards maybe not needing ohio. >> this is another state whenp& you look at the numbers in colorado see the impacti mitt romney in a very bad way in that state. republicans had high hopes in colorado. >> we're getting all of this now and we still haven't heard from virginia yet and we ha
but in the other states that you see, nevada colorado florida, and virginia we are still waiting and we are ve open to the results of an concession speech maybe people should stay in line now to win the popular vote as well as the ee lk torllectoral vote. >> we stay in the line anyway. >> we agr stay electoral vote tally according to the projections of the various states are 274 for barack obama and 3 for mitt romney. vb49/49 with only a couple hundred thousand votes between the two...
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leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt romney with needs to win 54 to 60% of the remaining votes in the states in order to drop into the victory. that's a huge lift. i think when you couple the fact that democratic base is much more fired up with the fact that obama for america has been organizing for the last four years. they keep talking about pennsylvania, you can't drop into pennsylvania the weekend before an election, and expect to tip the vote just by buying ads when you have the other team with a fantastic ground operation. >> drive by campaigning won't do it. when you look at pennsyl
leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt...
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having the governor of nevada, you know, that's kind of standard political stuff. i'm not sure how much that helps. >> we've just gotten some new numbers from visible measure, which is a tracking firm. there's a provocative obama ad that's gotten nearly 3 million views in the past week. i want to play a little clip. >> your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. you want to do it with a great guy. someone who really cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you get health insurance, spaeskly whether you get birth control. my first time voting was amazing. before i was a girl. now i'm a woman. i went to the polling station, pulled back the curtain. i voted for barack obama. >> now, some conservatives and others have called this ad a little creepy, but what do you think? is it effective? >> well, you have to remember, it's a targeted ad. it has driven some people in the right crazy. it's targeted to snarky, urban, liberal women. to the virginity analogy is kind of apt for that. i think they think it was clever. she's been called the voice of her
having the governor of nevada, you know, that's kind of standard political stuff. i'm not sure how much that helps. >> we've just gotten some new numbers from visible measure, which is a tracking firm. there's a provocative obama ad that's gotten nearly 3 million views in the past week. i want to play a little clip. >> your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. you want to do it with a great guy. someone who really cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you...
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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i've been in here 23, 24 days, i think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. it also could be close. but the firewall here of ohio, wisconsin, iowa -- >> talk to your stake holders. tell them what they should do on tuesday. >> if you can vote early, vote earlier. but don't just vote, bring your mom, your dad, bring your cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. let me tell you something, the middle class depends on it. it literally depends on it, in my opinion. >> vice president joe biden, thank you for your time. good luck. >>> north carolina and colorado look pretty tough. coming up, where does the race stand? we have the results of the latest and last poll before the election. that's next. and we have our top people here tonight. chuck todd, howard fineman, eugene robinson and others. the big question is about big bill. if president obama does win re-election tuesday night, the person he can thank the most perhaps probably is the guy he was campaigning with in new
i've been in here 23, 24 days, i think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. it also could be close. but the firewall here of ohio, wisconsin, iowa -- >> talk to your stake holders. tell them what they should do on tuesday. >> if you can vote early, vote earlier. but don't just vote, bring your mom, your dad, bring your cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. let me...
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right now he's en route to nevada. and later this evening, it is on to colorado. in what advisers call a slightly altered but affirmative stump speech, the president has promised to lay out his case of who he's fighting for and why. >> retraining at the age of 55 for a career in biotechnology. she needs a champion. >> and these are live pictures now from where governor romney is on the ground in virginia, in the southern part of the state. it is the governor's second event, by the way, of the day there. earlier today in central virginia, the governor resumed his message that he is the change candidate. this election, something he started before the storm. >> if the president were to be re-elected, you're going to see high levels of unemployment continue and stalled wage growth, if any wage growth at all, just like we've seen over the last four years. >>> and we're also getting a look at a new round of battleground polls all showing the president leading or running neck and neck with governor romney. in iowa the president is ahead six appointments among likely vote
right now he's en route to nevada. and later this evening, it is on to colorado. in what advisers call a slightly altered but affirmative stump speech, the president has promised to lay out his case of who he's fighting for and why. >> retraining at the age of 55 for a career in biotechnology. she needs a champion. >> and these are live pictures now from where governor romney is on the ground in virginia, in the southern part of the state. it is the governor's second event, by the...
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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be spending a lot of good times. >> here it is. that's what we're missing here. new hampshire over to there. >> new hampshire. >> and then we have it. >> thank you so much, chuck. >> bye now. >> chuck and the magic map. up next, mayor antonio villaraigosa in florida today, and house majority leader eric cantor from virginia, live from democracy plaza only here on msnbc. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred rx plan p-d-p gives you a low national plan premium... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. colin powell: yes. when he took ove
i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be...
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those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states for the presidential race where everybody pretty much knows exactly how it's going to go and just the states where there is some question as to what's going to happen, here is a clip and save thing for you about these states. the battlegrounds. all right? states that you know are going to be important and everybody thinks they're going to be close. t
those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily...
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so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida particularly, you have some really controversial candidates. one is very outspoken tea party republican allen west and the other is allen grayson, running to return to the house. >> any state that could elect either one is an accepting and forgiving electorate or they can't make up their minds. allen west has actually put up his opponent's mug shot from when he was 19 years old and that's unprecedented. most tea party representatives, no matter how controversial they are, will be re-elected. >> what about harry reid in nevada? we've seen that he has a machine in nevada and can deliver. >> he has spent
so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida...
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let's say florida and michigan and ohio and nevada and the list goes on. >> what are the chances of the sportscaster guy asking him a tough fema question on monday if he doesn't? >> i would say near zero. and the tax return questions i guess, he is probably not going to get from the sportscaster. >> it is the place to go. it is the place where you can have a simulation of an inner view without getting any of the questions. when you build a campaign on distraction it becomes more difficult. it is not new that the politicians try to control the encounters. what we have learned though, he does it more often with more severity than any one one else. there is a pool and that is a group of reporters that go to everything. and they issue pool reports as you well know from your time in politics. mitt romney tried to cut reporters in the pool out of covering his fundraisers. there was such disastrous push back from the press that they had to walk that back. what was that about? it was weird. no republican had tried to do that. now, when they see the types of things that they said. it is wrong. >
let's say florida and michigan and ohio and nevada and the list goes on. >> what are the chances of the sportscaster guy asking him a tough fema question on monday if he doesn't? >> i would say near zero. and the tax return questions i guess, he is probably not going to get from the sportscaster. >> it is the place to go. it is the place where you can have a simulation of an inner view without getting any of the questions. when you build a campaign on distraction it becomes...
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how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric against latinos on the dream act, on the immigration bill, in the primaries, i think it's going to be decisive. and what a president needs, a democratic needs to get reelected is 65% of the hispanic vote nationally and i think president obama is going to top that. and he's going to get close to 70%. and again, i believe that's going to be decisive. and it could be decisive in florida with a noncuban american latinos that trend republican but the central americans, that's who i was campaigning with in the last few days. >> i want to ask about something practical due to the gasoline shortage in new
how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric...
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. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force th
. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i...
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president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the edge in colorado. let's turn to bob shrum, professor of public policy at nyu and contributor to the daily beast. great to have you with us tonight. let's leave the names out of it for a moment. obama and romney. let's just take candidate a and candidate b. who would you want to be right now with the numbers playing? >> you would want to be candidate a assuming that's the unmentionable who is the president of the united states. he has a lot of roots to 270 electoral votes. if you look at candidate b, candidate b isn't even going to florida in the next few days. you can interpret that in one of
president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the...
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he's not going back to nevada. he's not going back to iowa. and he's not going to pennsylvania again. which is significant because the obama campaign in the end didn't take the bait on pennsylvania. they are sending bill clinton to pennsylvania, to philadelphia, tomorrow, but they're not sending the president there. >> what hasn't bill clinton done for barack obama? >> well, he was obama's great explainer. he was like the obama whisperer at the democratic convention in charlotte. he's been a campaigner. and he's been a good friend and increasingly somebody that the president relies on. if the president wins re-election, i'm convinced bill clinton's next job will be to help the president sell a budget deal to democrats who may not want to go along. that's almost a tougher job than getting the president re-elected. >> are you worried about the voter suppression that is taking place in ohio? it seems to be much more intense in ohio. much more organized, county to county, it looks like they have really done a job. the numbers are down. for instanc
he's not going back to nevada. he's not going back to iowa. and he's not going to pennsylvania again. which is significant because the obama campaign in the end didn't take the bait on pennsylvania. they are sending bill clinton to pennsylvania, to philadelphia, tomorrow, but they're not sending the president there. >> what hasn't bill clinton done for barack obama? >> well, he was obama's great explainer. he was like the obama whisperer at the democratic convention in charlotte....
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. >> we have a call to make coming out of nevada. let's go ahead and tell you what we know arace that the race is going to go t heller. this is something -- dean heller was a former congressman from appointed to this seat after john ens advance of this harshly critical senate ethics report on his ean heller is going to the winner there berk joining us in a momentida, a state we still have not been able to call yet. back in a moo